Has Trump derailed the Fine Wine Investing World?

As a financial professional of over 20 years and a fine wine investor and advisor, I was keen to look at the impact that President Donald Trump has potentially had on the fine wine investment world, given his recent global tariffs. I therefore decided to speak to three leading CEO who are running large assets under management to get their thoughts on the latest market dynamics and potential headwinds for fine wine investment, given the last couple of years have been far from plain sailing.

Tom Gearing (CEO of Cult Wines), James Shakeshaft (CEO of Vin-X Fine Wine Investment) and Callum Woodcock (CEO of WineFi) all agreed that there had been increased volatility and a reduction in investment in the sector as a result of the uncertainty from Trump’s tariff messaging.

Pre-Trump Tariff Markets

Gearing from Cult Wines, starts by painting the picture pre Trump when he begins by saying “2024 for everyone was a really tough year in fine wine investment circles, coming off the back now of nearly 2 years of underperformance resulting in buyers not coming to the market and a more general lack of liquidity.” That being said, Gearing is quick to point out that “2025 started with a more positive tone, tied in with Chinese New Year, which was probably above expectations after the Asian investor base had been fairly absent. Then February came around, and wholesale and B2B business was actually even higher for us than January.” Ultimately, there was a tendency to believe that investors were returning to the market and there was value at the current price levels, with good market depth and liquidity.

Trump rumours using a 200% Tariff on Wine Imports

Interestingly, Shakeshaft was recently quoted as noting that this is actually a repeat performance from Trump. In fact, he quickly points out that “we shouldn’t forget that Trump placed tariffs on fine wine back in 2019, imposing a 25% tariff on imported wines from France, Germany, Spain and the UK under Section 301, which applied to all wines below 14% ABV (Italy and Champagne were exempt).” The result was that in 2020, French wine exports to the US dropped by 14%, resulting in a loss of approximately 400 million Euros.

However, the initial announcement in March of 200% tariffs potentially on French wines is, as Gearing says, “a show stopper of epic proportions and would be catastrophic for the fine wine market. So much so, that I wouldn’t see the market recovering from it”. To back up Gearing’s claim, it is worth also remembering that the number one export country receiving Champagne and Bordeaux wines is the US before any tariff announcements.

Shakeshaft backs this sentiment up by suggesting that had Trump carried out the 200% tariff, they would have expected French wine to lose 70-90% of its sales in the UK; Champagne to face major decline; Italian wines to face a significant fall in value and US consumers would face massive price hikes, with European producers suffering multi billion dollar losses.

With 200% Tariffs now seemingly off the table, what happens now?

Positivity seemed to be the overriding message from the group of leading CEOs in the fine wine industry, especially as there has been precedent previously in Trump’s first term, where we saw 25% tariffs introduced. In fact, the overriding thought process of all when questioned was that 20% tariffs would be digestible within the industry.

And so, what is the key to a better fine wine marketplace going forward?

Woodcock from WineFi mentions that the investment landscape is likely to be “significantly different” than in the recent past. He goes on to mention that there should be “a genuine effort from chateaux to cut release prices which could finally provide the reset Bordeaux needs to re-engage investors”.

Gearing mentions that at Cult Wines, they do analysis on 176 chateaux in Bordeaux when it comes to the en primeur season. “The 2024 release might be the most severe time to release it, with so many mitigating factors even in comparison to the likes of 2019 during Covid”. He goes on to outline, “the en primeur this year has the ability for a 6-8 week period to capture and totally dominate the whole wine world for a number of months, and a well-priced 2024 vintage really can reset the market”.

Shakeshaft, who is recently back from the en primeur tasting in Bordeaux, agrees and also mentions that producers “are very aware of the roadblocks the market is facing. Between Trump tariffs and a reduction in young consumers, the producers are looking to price the 2024 vintage accordingly to both counter the tariffs and entice a new generation of wine drinkers”.

That being said, is there still value to be found, and where are the opportunities?

Shakeshaft begins by saying that in 2019, “opportunities arose in the Italian and Champagne markets” when we last faced a crisis. In 2024, he says, “there is real potential for Bordeaux, this is the year it can make a huge impact”.

Woodcock sees value in “mature back vintages – particularly those already held in bond or with strong global distribution channels, as they face little downside risk from proposed tariffs given they are already in circulation.”

Shakeshaft is clear in his assessment, “Champagne consumption remains high, creating high demand. Tuscany is a region whose awareness grew following previous tariffs and remains extremely sort after by consumers. Napa, if your wines are held in the UK already and in Bordeaux.’

Woodcock believes that “with price stability we can see, based on our data, a potential market correction imminently, offering investors the opportunity to enter the market at an optimal time.”

Gearing’s message is clear on this point too, “If we have increased stability in markets and tariffs are clearly set out (20%), and we see Bordeaux en primeur producer prices set at reductions of 30% (based on a 20% tariff scenario) then actually the tariff announcement inadvertently could create liquidity, bringing back buyers and a catalyst to upward trajectories in the market.”

Positivity, certainly clear for all to see from the list of opportunities from all three above given the right environment.

Conclusion

So whilst Trump has thrown a spanner in the works of the fine wine market, the overriding view appears to be that if we get clear instructions on the tariffs and that they are 20% or below, then the market can digest this and move on.

It looks very much like Bordeaux En Primeur holds the key once more, but even more so this time around, with the potential to stimulate global fine wine investing markets too in a highly changeable landscape.

Near term, it would only be prudent for all investors to look to Bordeaux producers and price releases for the 2024 vintage, whilst keeping more than half an eye on the Trump administration for further tariff announcements.